As the Bears prepare to take the field in a must-win game against the Houston Texans they will have to do so without Safety and defensive captain Mike Brown. It’s a common end to the season for Brown who will now finish up his fourth year out of the last five on injured reserved, with yet another leg injury — this time his calf — putting him on the shelf.

Now with free agency approaching it has put Mike Brown’s career with the Bears in doubt. Many thought it could’ve been over last season when a cheap block from Lorenzo Neal bent Brown backwards and led to an ACL tear. But as he had many times before Brown worked diligently all through the year rehabbing and has provided a stable veteran presence for the team through 15 games.

Yet, the cumulative effect of the injuries has been obvious. Once amongst the most dynamic playmakers at his position the loss of explosiveness has changed turnovers and big hits into solid tackles. While that along with his leadership should be enough, the Bears have needed more because his presence has pushed Kevin Payne out of position to free safety.

The injury should open the door for rookie Craig Steltz who was expected to challenge for a starting spot immediately but has developed slower and been relegated to special teams. Next year he will likely be competing with Brandon McGowan for a full-time spot next to Payne.

It is a sad day for Bears fans that this injury likely close door on the Mike Brown era. In the last nine seasons no one had worked harder or more embodied the soul of this Bears defense than Brown. The memories he has left here will be ones we cherish for years to come and it will be those moments and not the games he missed that this warrior will be remembered for.

For the first time since the Bears have been in their “win out or no playoffs” scenario they finally got some help from other teams. Losses by Dallas Cowboys, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings mean both the division and a wild card spot will still be in play Monday night.

But no matter how much will or will not be on the line when the Bears and Packers will take a frozen Solider Field it should be a hard fought football game. Five weeks ago Aaron Rodgers and Co. destroyed and embarrassed the Bears 37-3 forcing a 3-way tie for first place in the NFC North at 5-5. Now with their own playoff chances gone the Packers could have the opportunity to keep the Bears at home with them in January.

So as we try to do every week over at Bearscast.com we set five over/under’s that will be key this Monday night:

Over/Under: Kyle Orton passing yards 200

The last Bears/Packers game was Orton’s first back from the ankle injury he sustained in week 9 against the Lions and it showed. Without any mobility or the ability to push off and put sufficient velocity on his passes Kyle finished 13 of 26 for only 133 yards. In fact Orton has only one 200 yard passing game since the injury.

But the Orton’s ankle is a lot healthier and the Packers’ secondary is a lot more beat up than they were five weeks ago. Also the Packers defense will be focused on stopping the injured Matt Forte. That should mean even under less than ideal weather conditions the Bears passing game should be a lot more effective and important.

Over/Under: Ryan Grant rushing yards 100

Ryan Grant has come back to earth a bit during his second season with the Packers, but that didn’t seem to matter in the first match-up. Grant had only one 100 yard rushing game prior to week 11 against the Bears but gashed what had been the most consistent part of the Bears defense for 145 yards on just 25 carries. That effort was part of over 200 team rushing yards, the most the defense has given up all year.

The major reason for Grant’s big time performance was the focus the defense put on Aaron Rodgers and stopping the Packers top 10 passing offense. While it’s safe to expect that the Bears will be slightly less stubborn about bringing Mike Brown down into the box to stop the run, slowing down the aerial attack will still be the top priority. That should open enough holes for another solid game from Grant.

Over/Under: Devin Hester receiving yards 65

The press coverage of the Packers corners complete took the wide receivers out of the game up in Green Bay. Hester was just another victim being held to only 1 catch for 7 yards, his quietest performance since the first two weeks of the season.

Since then though Hester has established himself as the undisputed #1 wide receiver for this team. Averaging 62.5 yards per game over the last three as well as drawing two key pass interference penalties Hester has become a complete threat on offense. The Packers will undoubtedly try to jam him often, but if Hester can get off the press it will open up big play opportunities.

Over/Under: Brian Urlacher tackles 8.5

Earlier in the season Urlacher’s struggles made him the poster child for the decline of the Bears defense. For a former defensive player of the year fresh of a contract extension is never seemed to show up on Sundays. Averaging less than six tackles a game, without any sacks, and only two turnovers forced through 12 weeks it’s not shocking that he missed the Pro Bowl for the second straight year.

However, over the last two weeks announcers have been calling his name a lot more. The result has been 18 tackles, two strong defensive performances and two crucial wins. Now with the playoffs still a possibility and a long hated rival coming to Chicago in prime time Urlacher will need to continue his strong play that could help many fans forget his slow start.

Over/Under: 3rd down conversion rate 45%

Early in the season the Bears got by with an efficient offense that made sure to get into third and manageable situations and had a very high conversion rate. As teams have started to key on Matt Forte though the number of 3rd and longs has increased and the Bears season conversion rate is down to 40%. While that is not awful without the dominating defense of the past the offense needs to do a better job of pulling their weight.

It starts with a more consistent running game getting the Bears to 3rd and 5 or less. The Bears also need improved play for the WR position to give Orton more options as well as holding on to the ball. With the season on the line and perhaps his job for next season in doubt expect Kyle Orton and Co. to rise to the occasion, you have to as a Bears fan.

Give the Bears credit, since the 34-14 disaster up in Minnesota three weeks ago their backs have been against the wall and they’ve come up with two must have wins. Two strong defensive performances as well as the arrival of Devin Hester as a receiver have them half way to the 10-6 record they need to have a chance.

Unfortunately in the mean time the Bears have not gotten much help from anyone else. The Vikings consecutive wins of the Lions and Cardinals leaves the Bears two games back with two to go. Also with 4 teams ahead of them fighting for only two spots the chances for a wild card birth appear even slimmer.

The concern was always there, looming in the hangover after each close loss, and it looks like the early blown opportunities against the Panthers, Buccaneers and Falcons have come back to bite the Bears. From Greg Olsen’s fumbles to Charles Tillman personal foul to Robbie Gould’s disastrous squib kick this has been a year close but not close enough. So instead of competing for the best record in the NFC or even just even with the Vikings for the division the Bears can only wait and hope for help.

This week none of that matters with the rival Packers coming in for Monday Night Football. Even without any playoff implications the 37-3 beating the Pack put on the Bears five weeks ago should be more than enough motivation for this game. And maybe with a little help from the Atlanta Falcons – who play the Vikings this Sunday – the finale in Houston will mean something to.

Unfortunately wins in their final two games could still be just too little too late.

It’s hard to say that a victory over one of the worst teams in the NFL is a cure for all there ills but it should at least help shake off the hangover of the debacle in Green Bay. Sunday in St. Louis the Bears manhandled the Rams and finally did all the things we’ve been waiting for this season, like rushing the passer.

While the cries of victory should be tempered by the quality of the opponent it was certainly satisfying to see Brian Urlacher making plays and Tommie Harris and Adewale Ogunleye get to the quarterback. The Bears defense finally played with the passion fans had become accustom to, now the hope is the injuries coming out of this game don’t prevent a repeat performance in Minnesota.

So with a battle for first place against the Vikings on the horizon, we look back at the Bears and Rams in five:

1) It starts and ends with Forte
Everything the Bears have been able to do this year has started and ended with Matt Forte. Now fifth in the NFL in rushing with 909 yards and leading in total offensive touches with 270 the offense doesn’t go unless Forte makes it go. With 132 rushing yards Sunday he allowed the Bears to coast through the second half.

There is still some concern that he’ll hit that inevitable rookie wall, but if he could hold it off for just one more week he could give the Bears a serious leg up in the chase for the NFC North division crown. The Vikings commitment to stopping Forte the last time these two teams met allowed Kyle Orton to shred their secondary en route to 48 points. The Bears will need more out of Forte this time in an attempt to control the ball and keep his counterpart off the field.

2) The snap to Hester…
Sunday marked the long awaited debut of the Bears version of the “wildcat” formation. While the play wasn’t quite the homerun that it had been in other places around the league Hester still managed to work his way towards a first down and give opposing defensive coordinators a lot more to think about.

While Hester continues his struggles as a returner, even being relieved of his kickoff return duties, his nearly 90 yards of total offense Sunday shows the kind of contributions he can make. Ron Turner did an outstanding job of using Hester successfully in a variety of ways that should put all the Bears remaining opponents on notice.

3) Slow but steady
That’s the mantra Kyle Orton needed to have against the Rams. The play of his defense and Forte made sure that Orton had to do little more than dink and dunk and keep the offense moving. The ankle injury appears to have limited his ability to get the ball deeper down the field, but his accuracy was vastly improved from the game against Green Bay.

Now as the Bears travel to the Metrodome Orton will need to find his deep touch again. Four weeks removed from the injury against Detroit the Bears will need the QB who was creating all sorts of long-term extension buzz before the bye week to return.

4) Did the real Bears defense just stand up?
We’ve seen 1-game aberration from this group before and it’s hard to overstate how terrible the Rams are, but success has to start somewhere. It’s obviously unreasonable to expect this team to return to a top-5 or even top-10 defense given the body of work they’ve put out this year, but improvement is the key. The defense needs to avoid the drop-off they experienced after their last dominant performance in Detroit.

Then again the return of a pass rush from Tommie Harris and Adewale Ogunleye make pretty much anything possible. If the Bears can return to getting pressure with just their front four it allows them to get more creative in disguising their coverages. Perhaps most important though was the return of the run defense going into their second match-up with Adrian Peterson.

5) The injury bug
The only significant injuries the Bears had going into St. Louis were Marty Booker, who hadn’t caught a pass in three weeks, and Kevin Jones, who’s been ineffective all season. Now coming out of that game the Bears could be down half of the starting secondary. Mike Brown’s lower leg injury and Nathan Vasher’s hit to his surgically repaired wrist could likely keep both out next week.

The silver lining here is that both of their back-ups have seen playing time and played well. Corey Graham was already on the verge of taking Vasher’s starting spot and his superior tackling probably would’ve had him on the field most of the time anyway.

Craig Steltz for Mike Brown on the other hand should be more concerning. While Brown is not the playmaker he once was in coverage he is still excellent at playing downhill and attacking the line of scrimmage, that’s something the Bears could sorely miss in Minnesota.

Bearscast will return with brand new episodes this week. We have to much to discuss after the awful drubbing in Green Bay and the awesome drubbing in St. Louis. Stay tuned!

- The Bearscast Crew