Training camp is obviously a very fluid situation, especially coming off an abbreviated offseason with expanded rosters and before the first preseason game. But speculation is an awful lot of fun, so I wanted to take a look at the projected 53-man roster based on where we stand right now.

Some of this will be anticipation of how well certain players are going to perform in the coming weeks, but for the most part I don’t feel like there are a lot of roster spots to be won at this point and most of the shuffling will happen within the depth chart.

So without further ado here is my Bears projected 53-man roster as of August 8, 2011:

OFFENSE

QB: Jay Cutler, Caleb Hanie, Nathan Enderle
RB: Matt Forte, Marion Barber, Khalih Bell
FB: Harvey Unga
TE: Desmond Clark, Matt Spaeth, Kellen Davis
WR: Roy Williams, Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett, Devin Hester, Sam Hurd, Dave Sanzenbacher
G/C: Roberto Garza, Lance Louis, Chris Spencer, Chris Williams, Edwin Williams
OT: J’Marcus Webb, Gabe Carimi, Frank Omiyale

Sub-Total: 24

DEFENSE

DT: Anthony Adams, Stephen Paea, Matt Toeaina, Henry Melton, Amobi Okoye
DE: Julius Peppers, Israel Idonije, Corey Wootton, Vernon Gholston
LB: Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, Nick Roach, Brian Iwuh, J.T. Thomas, FA TBD
CB: Charles Tillman, Tim Jennings, Zack Bowman, D.J. Moore, Joshua Moore, Corey Graham
S: Chris Harris, Major Wright, Craig Steltz, Chris Conte

Sub-Total: 25

SPECIAL TEAMS

PK: Robbie Gould
P: Adam Podlesh
LS: Patrick Mannely

Sub-Total: 3

TOTAL: 52

Ok, so I could only come up with 52 guys who are going to make the roster. The easiest thing would be to simply slide Chester Taylor in on the offensive side of things but I really think he’s gone. The Bears gave up a 7th round pick for Unga and I think they slip him onto the roster as a “fullback” even though this offense really doesn’t have one. It’ll give them an additional specials teams player and he should provide some bulk in the backfield in certain situations.

On defense I already have one “Free Agent To Be Determined” at LB. There Bears are without a 6th true linebacker at the moment but they certainly won’t go into the season that way. Another place you could tag with a ‘FA TBD’ is probably safety. Steltz and Conte are both likely to be fine special teams players but the Bears defensive backfield is in a lot of trouble if either one see’s significant playing time.

Caleb Hanie is an unrestricted free agent this year and I am sure the Bears are going to try to resign him, but the question is what will he cost and will the Bears pay up? He has proven himself to be a very capable backup and with the looming 18 game schedule teams are goign to put even more emphasis on their backup QB’s. I am sure some teams will look at Hanie as a potential guy they would even want to compete for a starting job and their should be some solid bidding for his services. So how much is he going to go for and will the Bears do what ti takes to keep him? Recent year have shown that young guys who show a spark tend to be very well compensated on the open market, probably over compensated. Toud Bouman, Scott Mitchell, Jake Delhomme, Matt Cassell Matt Schaub etc. I would not be surprised to see a team make Hanie an offer in the 3 year 10-15 Million range. I like Hanie alot, and I will also say this – I am fine with paying 5 million a year for a good backup in today’s NFL. I do think that price tag is a lot for Hanie though and we would be better off with a veteran free agent that we can get in that price range. So Bears fans I am afraid to say I think we have seen the last of Hanie in a Bears uniform. I think Angelo will pay for proven talent, but does not like to pay for promise and he will let Hanie go the way of Bernard Berrian. We missed Berrian when he left, but he clearly was not worth the money we would have needed to resign him.

Bears fans tell me what you think. What kind of contract is Hanie going to get? Should we pay that kind of money to resign him or find someone else?

Caleb Hanie seduced me the way every back-up quarterback should: with big throws and gritty play against other scrubs in the waning moments of a preseason game. Oh Caleb you had me at that Hail Mary pass to beat the 49ers.

With Jay Cutler officially sidelined with concussion symptoms the Bears are probably counting their blessings that they are matched up with the 0-4 Carolina Panthers and their rookie quarterback Jimmy Clausen this week. It’s safe to say – even with all the flaws exposed against the Giants – the Bears will only need a mere semblance of offense to win.

Enter the only Bears quarterback to make a play down the field last week, right?

Wrong. The Bears apparently feel better about turning to veteran Todd Collins despite his listless performance in relief of Cutler Sunday night. A lot has been made of the fact that Collins won his last 3 games as a starter. Not enough has been made of the fact that those games came in 2007 when Collins finished out a season for the Redskins.

Mike Martz has always preferred the heady veteran who will simply run his system and highlight the genius of how such a system could make a non-talent like Jon Kitna a 4,000 yard passer. So what better way to honor the system than to turn Todd Collins into a fill-in winner.

But before Hanie’s preseason shoulder injury the Bears’ coaching staff seemed content with him manning the #2 job. If Collins was such a better options why not bring him in from the get-go instead of needing to be pressed into it?

Also – given the deteriorating state of the offensive line – why not turn to the younger, more mobile and athletic quarterback? The one who might be able to evade the rush, get outside the pocket and make a play? Sure he may be less experience and might not go through his reads and progressions perfectly, and in Martz’s world that is the cardinal sin that can not be allowed.

And so the Bears will trot Collins out under center Sunday in Carolina. To make people say, ‘Wow! Look at that play! Even Todd Collins can make it as a quarterback under Martz’ instead of ‘Wow! Look at that play! Hanie sure made something out of nothing there’. That is the stubbornness and arrogance of Mike Martz. The same stubbornness that had the Bears continually dropping back to pass until the Giants knocked Cutler out of the game. The same arrogance that believe Collins is the better choice to lead the Bears on Sunday just because he’s been around longer.

Consider this the call for Caleb Hanie. Forget about the importance of experience and start thinking about the impact of creativity and athleticism when it comes to moving the Chicago Bears malfunctioning offense down the field.

At 7pm central time Sunday a Bears fan could’ve said ‘our offensive line is going to get Jay Cutler killed’ and chuckled. Three hours later that seemed like far too disturbing a reality to joke about.

What a difference a loss makes.

Now the Bears must deal with a concussed quarterback and an offensive line that has been exposed as a fraud. Being 3-1 is nice, but that same start wasn’t able to get the 2009 Bears in the playoffs.

So what is going to be different this year?

Matt Bowen of National Football Post has already identified most of the Bears blocking issues as technique based. But how comforting is that when one of the big off-season additions was supposed to be Mike Tice?

Is he this years Rod Marinelli?

The offensive line has to be able to block in some capacity in order for the offense to succeed. And athough they are far from the only culprits for Sunday night’s disaster, the linemen are the easiest to criticize.

From the moment Cutler under threw Devin Hester — and missed a sure touchdown — he looked determined to make up for that play. Instead of taking the open underneath pass the Giants offered with their zone coverage Cutler patted the ball and waited for something bigger to develop.

So while a Bears defense that was questioned coming into the preseason demanded respect in a second straight national TV appearance, the offense crumbled under the pressure. Two weeks removed from brilliantly adjusting to the Dallas pressure and the loss of Chris Williams, the Giants stunts and an injury to Lance Louis proved to be too much.

That is the Bears biggest flaw. Despite ample talent and experience in almost all other areas the very foundation of the team is cracked and crumbling. Years of neglect by Jerry Angelo have created an amalgamation of inexperienced low draft picks and aging veterans along the offensive line.

Even with an unexpectedly strong performance by the defense and receivers, the running game and Cutler can’t preform at the level they need to without a little help. Will that help come? The Bears weak schedule over the next few weeks may not help us reach a conclusion but starting with the Minnesota Vikings after the bye week fans will find out just how well this team can adjust.

Through 3 weeks of the NFL season the Bears are the lone undefeated team in the NFC. Cutler is a top 5 rated quarterback, Urlacher has returned to Pro Bowl form, Devin Hester is getting all ridiculous again, and Julius Peppers is earning his $91.5 million price tag.

Yet it’s hard to fight the temptation to rain on this parade. After all, the offensive line is in shambles – unable to protect Cutler or create any holes in the running game. The defensive secondary has seen its top corner benched and has given up passing yards galore. And as good as Peppers has been on the defensive line everyone else has been equally as bad, especially the inactive Tommie Harris.

So who are these guys?

Are they undefeated contenders who will make their doubters eat crow all season?

Or are they a flawed team who could just as easily be 1-2?

The Bears have too much talent to end up with the dregs of the league. While the mediocre finishes the last 3 years has raised doubts in minds of Bears fans players like: Urlacher, Cutler, Briggs, Peppers, Hester, Tillman, and Knox are all legit NFL difference makers.

By the same token this team is invariably flawed. The big athletic offensive line that Jerry Angelo and Mike Tice have constructed doesn’t seem to be able to push anyone off the ball. That’s why the Bears running game is stuck in neutral, and that 4th and goal pass to Desmond Clark against the Packers will not be the last time you see the Bears throwing with 3rd or 4th and less than 3 yards to go. On the defensive side of the ball no one but Peppers can get pressure.

So how does this flawed and talented team win? By executing the Lovie Smith Equation.

What is the Lovie Smith Equation? Our big plays – our mistakes > your big plays – your mistakes

Since Lovie has taken over as head coach that is how the Bears have approached winning football games. Under the direction of Mike Martz the offense is attacking downfield and making enough big plays to overcome their mistakes. On defense Rod Marinelli has refrained from blitzing and the Bears gap control has shut down the oppositions running game, forcing them to rely on the short passing game effectively eliminating big plays.

The offense is going to be a roller coaster, with Cutler running for his life and no running game to speak of, but they are going to make plays. They won’t be a dominant offense unless Tice can suddenly turn Frank Omiyale and Lance Louis into Pro Bowlers, but as long as Jay doesn’t go interception crazy they will be good.
On defense it won’t be nearly as exciting and all about execution. The Bears pass rush is not good enough to get there with four and therefore shut down opposing passing games given their preferred zone coverage. That means they will need to continue to be disciplined with their gap assignments, crush opposing ground games, and make teams one dimensional.

Bottom line is that if Cutler is making poor decisions or a team can run on the Bears they are going to be in trouble. If both happen you can forget about it unless Devin Hester has found a time machine back to 2007. However, as long as they are making big plays on offense and avoiding them on defense the Bears are going to be better than expected.

Does that make them a bit of a tease? Probably, in the sense that the Bears are not the best team in the NFC as their record currently indicates. But seeing as they have already beaten two preseason Super Bowl contenders it’s safe to say this team can kill a few Giants too.